China Then and Now. Click to keep reading…

21 Dec China Then and Now. Click to keep reading…

Historians and political junkies are already wondering how the new administration will deal with China in the next four years. Chinese GDP expanded 4.9% in the third quarter, a robust rebound from the ravages of COVID-19. How America responds to China should be framed by a historical perspective. China is not an emerging market, but a country that has been one of the world’s largest economies over the past 2,000 years. It’s growth into the world’s second largest economy is a return to the norm rather than an astonishing “rise to power”. The period of time that China has been subordinated to the Western World has been relatively short. It wasn’t until 1842, after the Qing dynasty’s defeat by Britain, that the balance of power swung to the West. In fact, it’s the dominance of the West that is unusual, not the resurgence of China as a powerhouse.

Framing the current growth in China’s power as a restoration can shift how the U.S. deals with China, and how it fits into the global political and economic order. It’s important to understand that China aspires to be, and will most likely be, a global superpower. Economic and diplomatic attempts to get China to play by Western rules will be ignored. Allowing China to grow in areas that will not fundamentally damage U.S. interests will start to inspire cooperation in Beijing. China does pose a threat as it attempts to exert domination in East Asia, but coordinated diplomatic measures meant to constrain them will be more effective than one on one slugfests that the Trump administration has employed. A U.S. policy that appreciates Chinese history doesn’t necessitate a subservient approach. Chinese policies that encourage IP theft or human rights abuses must be dealt with carefully and with more force.

While Chinese ascendance to a global superpower is not inevitable, it’s important to recognize the historical trends propelling them forward, and to use this recognition as the foundation for Western diplomatic efforts. Learn more at Bloomberg.com.